A large body of international research has consistently documented positive associations between family socioeconomic background and academic achievement. Meta-analytic evidence generally indicates small to moderate effect sizes, suggesting that SES is a meaningful, though not deterministic, contributor to students’ learning outcomes (Harwell et al., 2017; Liu et al., 2022; Korous et al., 2022). At the same time, substantial variation exists in the reported magnitude of SES effects. While some large-scale syntheses report correlations in the moderate range (r ≈ .22–.28; Liu et al., 2022), others identify considerably weaker associations, particularly when controlling for various individual and school-level factors (Kim et al., 2019; Song & Tan, 2025). These findings suggest that SES effects are shaped not only by family-level resources but also by broader institutional, cultural, and policy environments.
Beyond differences in performance levels, prior research has also examined how socioeconomic inequalities relate to students’ developmental trajectories. Longitudinal and cross-cohort analyses indicate that although students from higher SES backgrounds consistently outperform their lower SES peers, socioeconomic background often shows limited influence on the rate of development over time. Instead, early differences tend to emerge at the beginning of schooling and remain relatively stable across subsequent grades, resulting in largely parallel developmental trajectories (Liu et al., 2022). This pattern suggests that schooling may neither substantially compensate for nor increase initial SES-related gaps in many educational systems.
Cross-national evidence highlights particularly strong SES effects in several European countries, including Hungary. According to recent PISA reports, Hungary belongs to the group of education systems in which students’ socioeconomic background explains a markedly larger share of variance in academic performance. In mathematics, for example, SES accounts for approximately 25% of performance variance in Hungary, compared to an OECD average of around 15% (OECD, 2023). These findings indicate pronounced educational inequalities and underline the importance of examining SES-related processes within the Hungarian context in greater depth.
Socioeconomic inequalities in educational outcomes are especially consequential when they concern fundamental learning-related abilities. Cognitive skills have been shown to play a central role in shaping individual life chances, income distribution, and long-term economic growth (Hanushek & Woessmann, 2008). Among these skills, inductive reasoning occupies a key position. Inductive reasoning supports learning across domains by enabling individuals to detect regularities, form generalizations, and transfer knowledge to new situations (Klauer & Phye, 2008). It is closely related to fluid intelligence and has been identified as a strong predictor of academic achievement (Perret, 2015; Van Vo & Csapó, 2022).
A large-scale study in Hungary has demonstrated substantial SES-related differences in students’ inductive reasoning between Grades 1 and 8, with children from more advantaged family backgrounds consistently achieving higher levels of performance and these differences remaining largely stable across grade levels (Molnár, 2025). However, this evidence is based on cross-sectional designs and relies on a narrow SES indicator, namely parental education alone (Molnár, 2025). Consequently, little is known about whether socioeconomic background influences not only the level but also the rate of development of inductive reasoning when examined within a longitudinal framework and using a more comprehensive conceptualization of SES.
Addressing this gap, the present study examines the longitudinal development of students’ inductive reasoning from Grades 3 to 7 and investigates how differences in socioeconomic background are associated with initial levels and growth trajectories across primary and lower secondary education.

Sample The analyses were based on data from the Hungarian Educational Longitudinal Program, a nationwide research designed to monitor students’ learning trajectories and development from early primary school through lower secondary education (Csapó, 2014). The program follows students across Grades 1 to 8 and covers a broad range of cognitive and non-cognitive domains. The present study draws on three waves of data collection conducted when students were in Grades 3, 5, and 7. The final sample comprised 6,232 students (50.1% girls), attending 155 schools and 287 classes. The sampling design aimed to approximate representativeness at the regional, county, and settlement-type levels. Approximately 5% of the national student cohort at the target grade level was included. Schools served as the primary sampling units, and all participating institutions were mainstream primary schools. Assessment of inductive reasoning Students’ inductive reasoning was assessed using online tests consisting of figural and numerical series and analogy tasks. Across measurement occasions, different but anchor-linked test forms were employed to enable developmental comparisons over time. Student performance was placed on a common latent ability scale using Rasch model. The resulting scale demonstrated excellent reliability (EAP/PV=.94). The assessments were administered in the ICT labs of the participating schools using the eDia online assessment platform (Csapó & Molnár, 2019). The system relies on individual measurement identifiers to ensure student anonymity, and no personally identifiable information was collected during data collection. Handling of missing data To address missing responses resulting from the longitudinal design, multiple imputation was applied (Wijesuriya et al., 2025). A random forest–based chained equations procedure was used to generate 100 imputed datasets, allowing uncertainty associated with missing values to be appropriately reflected in subsequent analyses. Socioeconomic background measure Students’ socioeconomic background was operationalized using a composite latent construct reflecting multiple dimensions commonly emphasized in the literature. To achieve this, a two-level latent confirmatory factor model was estimated separately for each imputed dataset. The socioeconomic background factor captured shared variance across four domains: parental education, geographical disadvantage, material resources, and parental involvement. Parental education was indicated by the highest qualification levels of both parents. Geographical disadvantage was represented by a set of settlement-level socioeconomic indicators. Material resources were measured through a comprehensive inventory of household assets, while parental involvement was assessed using items capturing academically relevant support behaviours at home.

In line with previous cross-sectional results (Molnár, 2025), we found a consistent and substantial association between students’ socioeconomic background and their level of inductive reasoning across all grade levels. Socioeconomic status showed moderate correlations with inductive reasoning performance (r = 0.32, 0.34, and 0.37, respectively), which are slightly higher than the effect sizes typically reported in recent meta-analyses (Liu et al., 2022; Korous et al., 2022). This pattern aligns with prior evidence and reflects the strong role of socioeconomic background in educational outcomes observed in Hungary (OECD, 2023). Across the full sample, students’ inductive reasoning improved by approximately half a standard deviation between measurement waves. Quartile-based analyses revealed pronounced and persistent socioeconomic differences at each grade level. In particular, the performance gap between students in the lowest and highest SES quartiles approached one standard deviation, corresponding to several years of developmental difference in inductive reasoning within the same grade level. Latent growth curve models further clarified these patterns. Socioeconomic background showed a strong association with the latent intercept (b=32.17, SE=1.20, p<0.01), indicating marked SES-related differences in initial levels of inductive reasoning by Grade 3. Although a small positive association between continuous SES and growth was observed (b=1.40, SE=0.47, p<0.01), quartile-based comparisons revealed no systematic differences in growth rates between socioeconomic groups. Thus, early socioeconomic differences remained stable over time, a finding consistent with prior research suggesting limited SES effects on developmental slopes (Molnár, 2025; Liu et al., 2022). Future research should examine whether these patterns hold when additional individual- and school-level factors are considered and when longer developmental spans are analyzed. The findings highlight the importance of early interventions aimed at reducing SES-related gaps in fundamental cognitive skills. Such efforts may contribute to improving educational equity not only in Hungary, but also in education systems facing similarly strong socioeconomic gradients.

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